Days after winning the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race in March, Doug Ford was asked why he insisted on framing his opponents as elites. Ford is a wealthy man who inherited a company from his politician father. Isnât he also an elite?
âIt has nothing to do with money,â Ford told Ontarioâs public broadcaster, TVO. âI know people with half a billion, a billion dollars who will grab a shovel and start digginâ a ditch. The elites, they think theyâre smarter than you. They look down at you like youâre some sort of Neanderthal ⌠They stick their nose up at you and when they drink their champagne and have their little pinky up in the air.â
Unlike elites, Ford drinks milk straight from the container, he said.
For anyone who lived through the world-famous mayoral term of Dougâs younger brother, Rob Ford -- an era when Doug served not only as a city councillor but also as de facto co-mayor -- the comment would have sounded familiar.
The Ford family has built a strong brand by drawing a distinction between the people they label as fat cat, gravy-train riding elites (read: other politicians) and those regular folks who drink straight from the carton and are suspicious about how their tax dollars are being spent.
In an election in which it appears Ontarians are sick of the incumbents -- the Liberals have been in power 15 years, and poll after poll finds the majority of voters want change -- Fordâs populist message appears to be resonating.
âFord just embodies anti-eliteness in everything he does,â says University of Toronto politics professor Chris Cochrane.
âPeople point to his wealth and his background to say heâs a false prophet of populism, but when he speaks you can tell heâs not cut from the same cloth as a typical politician, and thatâs a huge advantage at a time when people are frustrated with government,â he says.
Carleton Universityâs Paul Thomas agrees. âHeâs the kind of candidate who fits well with the general assessment of what the Liberals have done wrong, which is that theyâre a high-tax kind of government, bringing in the carbon levy and not good guardians of the public purse,â he says.
The trick for Ford, they say, will be to sell that anti-elite message without making the types of mistakes that took down two previous PC leaders.
For former PC leader John Tory, the mistake made was taking a position on a divisive social issue by promising to fund non-Catholic religious schools, they say.
For Toryâs successor, Tim Hudak, the major stumble was spooking voters by vowing to cut 100,000 public sector jobs, according to Cochrane and Thomas.
Focus on efficiencies, not cuts
Thomas and Cochrane say Ford seems to understand he canât be seen as a threat to public services.
They point to how he answered when asked about cuts at a debate in March.
âI donât believe we need to cut any jobs, I donât believe in taking food off peopleâs table,â Ford said. âWeâre going to find efficiencies ⌠and thatâs how weâre going to save the money, just like we did in the City of Toronto.â
When Ford spoke to CTVâs Power Play in March, he repeated the assertion that he could find major âefficiencies,â claiming he and Rob managed to cut a billion dollars from Torontoâs city budget "and not one single person was laid off."
Ford gave supervisors âwho report into 12 other supervisors,â as an example of a possible efficiency.
âIn the private sector, a supervisor will look after probably 15 people roughly, so when these supervisors all decide to retire, through attrition, we just arenât going to replace them,â he said.
Thomas and Cochrane say the billion dollar claim isnât backed up by reality. when he ran against Tory for Mayor of Toronto in 2014 but the numbers never added up. Ford pointed to things like privatizing some garbage collection as saving $80 million, but the city said at the time that privatization
Ford also claimed that cutting the $60 annual vehicle registration fee saved taxpayers â$200 million.â That may have been a savings for taxpayers, but it wasnât an âefficiency,â so much as a giant hole in the budget.
Economists have suggested Ford wonât be able to pay for some of his spending promises, like child care rebates of up to $6,750 per family and care over a decade, if he also follows through on his vows to scrap the cap-and-trade program and cut corporate taxes--
But that might not matter, considering how the Liberals have managed the books. Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk of âdramatically understatingâ the size of the deficit and Moodyâs downgraded Ontarioâs finances from âstableâ to ânegativeâ in April.
Besides, Ford appears to have found an economic message that could resonate. Like U.S. President Donald Trump, he argues he can spur growth in manufacturing by reducing taxes and regulations.
âYou see whatâs happening south of the border,â Ford told host CTVâs Your Morning in March.
âYou see whatâs happening south of the border,â Ford told host CTVâs Your Morning in March. âThey have trillions of dollars coming in, the lowest unemployment weâve seen in 20 years, and they have manufacturing jobs flowing back into the country. Up in Ontario, you have more red tape, more rules, more regulations ⌠the carbon tax ... the highest hydro rates ⌠some of the highest property taxes, and then youâre supposed to compete?â
He offered a similar assessment to a crowd in Markham, Ont. âOntario was once the economic engine of this country, among the greatest manufacturing economies. Ontario cars, manufactured goods ... were found in every single store in North America ... The engine of our country under the Liberals is now a have-not province.â
Ford has repeatedly said he plans on putting a âbig neon signâ on the Canada-U.S. border that says âOntario is open for business.â Itâs the type of symbol -- like Trumpâs wall on the Mexican border -- that could stick in votersâ minds.
Steering clear of social conservatism
Cochrane and Thomas say the jury is still out on whether Ford will be able to avoid taking sides on divisive social issues.
Ford did manage to avoid Toryâs fatal pitfall when he was asked on Power Play whether he would get rid of the parallel Catholic and non-Catholic public school systems.
Ford simply reframed the issue around -- what else -- efficiencies. âTheyâre two separate school boards so weâve got to respect that, but we have to share the synergies and make sure on the procurement side that we drive the efficiencies,â he said. âWhat drives me nuts is you have two Taj Mahals, one separate school board and one right beside it.â
On social issues, both Cochrane and Thomas say that key ally in the leadership race, Tanya Granic Allen, could push things off the rails.
Granic Allen, who is is the social conservative activist who placed fourth in the provincial PC Party leadership race, but whose voters overwhelmingly ranked Ford second on the ballot, helping him to squeak past challenger Christine Elliott.
later took credit for Fordâs win, saying they had helped Granic Allen sign up 9,000 members and told them to make Ford their second choice.
Part of what appeals to anti-abortion activists is Fordâs position that children under 18 should be required to get parental consent for abortions.
Thomas says itâs common for right-leaning politicians to court social conservatives with positions like that in order to win leadership races, but they can hinder them in general elections.
One social issue thatâs especially fraught for the PCs is the sexual education curriculum update overseen by the Wynne Liberals. Granic Allen famously declared in a PC leadership debate that children in elementary school are learning about anal sex when they should be learning math.
Cochrane says it was a âpreposterous" claim considering whatâs actually in the curriculum, and repeating it could make the PCs look like liars, or like theyâre attacking LGBT people.
âDiplomacy isnât (Granic Allenâs) strong suit and subtlety isnât her strong suit, so if sheâs the voice of the party on the sex ed curriculum, I think that will be much to their detriment,â Cochrane says.
âBut if Ford plays it pretty tight to the chest, sticks to simple messages and doesnât get caught up in anything like school sex ed curriculum, he has a very good chance in this election.â
Also:
⢠How Kathleen Wynne could win the Ontario election
⢠How Andrea Horwath could win the Ontario election