If you listened closely to Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwathâs unofficial campaign launch on St. Patrickâs Day, you would have heard her repeat the same two words: change and cynicism.
What you wouldnât have heard much were direct attacks on the policies of her Liberal rival, Kathleen Wynne.
Horwath canât do much to criticize the Liberalsâ policy agenda; itâs basically a New Democratâs dream.
Hiking the minimum wage to $14 an hour, creating free pharmacare for people under 25, imposing rent control and offering free university and college tuition are all things more typically associated with the NDP than the Liberals, but Wynne has done it all.
After five years of Wynne as premier, there seems to be so little left for Horwath to promise that the NDPâs signature policies have so far included universal dental care and gradually buying back shares in the public hydro utility Hydro One.
But just because the Liberals have taken on many of the leftist policies normally reserved for the NDP, that doesnât mean Horwath canât win.
Both University of Toronto political scientist Chris Cochrane and Carleton University professor Paul Thomas agree that Horwathâs biggest asset is the votersâ strong desire for change, combined with a lack of baggage.
Poll after poll has found Ontarians want a change in government after nearly 15 years of Liberals. A whopping of those polled by DART Research for NEWSTALK 1010 in March agreed with the statement âit is time for another provincial party to take over.â
Meanwhile, a poll by in March found that nearly two in three people view Wynne unfavourably and nearly half dislike Progressive Conservative Doug Ford. Only about one in four disapprove of Andrea Horwath.
The NDP may be starting out in third place, but Cochrane and Thomas say that if Horwath can convince enough voters that she can provide a change in leadership from Wynne without turning the province in a different direction, she could unite the left and win.
Emphasis on cynicism
One way for Horwath to highlight that she would represent a change in leadership style, if not policy direction, is to paint the Liberals as cynics.
Thereâs already evidence Horwath is taking this strategy.
Just look at how she responded after the Liberals announced $2.1 billion over four years in funding for mental health care.
âAfter 15 years in office, anything the Liberal government wanted to do, they would have already done,â Horwath said. âTodayâs announcement is at least a decade overdue.â
Thomas says it was cynical of Wynne to prorogue parliament just days before delivering the 2018 budget, a move the Liberals made to grab some extra media attention.
After the throne speech, Horwath didnât paint the Liberals as wrong for what they promised, but as cynical for doing it so late in their term.
The difference between the NDP and the Liberals, Horwath said, is âwe believe in these things before elections and after elections.â
Cochrane says Wynne's minimum wage hike is a popular policy -- a in January found nearly two in three were in favour -- but even that could end up backfiring on the Liberals and benefit the NDP.
Thatâs because the Liberals ignored their own task forceâs advice to increase the wage at the rate of inflation, even after Wynne claimed the task force had âdepoliticizedâ the process.
The jury is still out on whether the speed of the increase has cost jobs. After Statistics Canada reported that Ontario shed 59,300 part-time jobs in January, some economists were already blaming the 20 per cent wage hike.
âIf by expediting the minimum wage increase, they ended up costing jobs, then again you have to have images of the gas plants scandal,â Cochrane says.
In the gas plants scandal, the Liberals looked like they were âwilling to throw away hundreds of millions in order to win or help themselves win an election,â he says. âIf theyâre willing to throw away tens of thousands of jobs to win an election, I think that would be (seen as) unforgivable.â
How to flip Liberals
Thomas says the trick for Horwath will be to convince Liberal voters to make the switch to her party without creating too much âcognitive dissonanceâ about the fact they voted Liberal in the past.
Rather than suggesting âLiberals are stupid,â Thomas says Horwath has to âfind an olive branch, to say, âKathleen Wynne has lost her way ⌠letâs move forward with other people in charge.ââ
This may explain why Horwath was recently quoting former Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty.
âWe have a party that is old and tired and needs to be replaced,â Horwath told CTVâs Power Play in March. âThatâs what (McGuinty) said about the (Mike Harris) conservatives back in 2003 ⌠Thatâs where the Liberals are today. We definitely need some change.â
Thomas points out that the âolive branchâ strategy seemed to work for Justin Trudeau.
In late 2013, Trudeau was in third place and knew he would need to cosy up to NDP supporters if he was going to win in 2015, so he praised late NDP leader Jack Layton.
âMake no mistake, the NDP is no longer the hopeful, optimistic party of Jack Layton,â Trudeau said after the Liberals won a byelection in Montreal. âIt is the Liberal party tonight that proved hope is stronger than fear, that positive politics can and should win out over the negative,â he added.
Thomas says that was Trudeau's signal to NDP voters that they may have been wise to support the New Democrats in the past, but not in the future.
Cochrane agrees that there are lessons for Horwath in Trudeauâs come-from-behind majority win.
âSupport can consolidate pretty quickly when both the Liberals and NDP are pursuing exactly the same voters in exactly the same places, with the exact same policies,â he says.
âConsidering (they) have the policies which are nearly identical to what the Liberals are proposing,â Cochrane says, âthe NDP are well-positioned to pick up the pieces if the Liberals fall apart.â
Also:
⢠How Doug Ford could win the Ontario election
⢠How Kathleen Wynne could win the Ontario election