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    • Trudeau Liberals face uphill battle with ballot support, preferred PM number falling

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    As they gear up to unveil their 2023 budget in a few weeks, the federal Liberals are in an uphill battle against the Conservatives in both ballot support and preferred prime minister numbers, according to Nanos Research.

    With health care still the top national issue of concern for Canadians, the Liberals in January and beginning of February were enjoying a significant uptick in public support -- with their health-care funding deals with the provinces prominently in the headlines.

    It resulted in positive movement for them in Nanos鈥 weekly ballot tracking over a four-week period, said Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos on the latest episode of 愛污传媒 Trend Line.

    鈥淏ut what we've now seen in the last number of weeks is that the Liberal numbers are going down,鈥 said Nanos.

    Nanos weekly ballot support tracking as of March 15, 2023.

    There was no significant change for Pierre Poilievre鈥檚 Conservatives over the past four weeks, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals took a five-percentage point dip.

    鈥淲hat鈥檚 happening right now is the Conservative numbers are holding,鈥 said Nanos, while 鈥渢here鈥檚 been downward pressure on the Liberals.鈥 He added that 鈥渁ny number for the Liberals that has a 鈥榯wo鈥 in front of it is bad news [for them].鈥

    VOTE SPLIT SCENARIO

    The NDP numbers, meanwhile, remain flat, while the Bloc Quebecois are up a few percentage points to nine per cent nationally.

    鈥淣ine per cent nationally for the Bloc is actually significantly higher in the province of Quebec,鈥 said Nanos. And with the NDP in the twenties and the Bloc up, 鈥渢hat鈥檚 the scenario that creates vote splits,鈥 said Nanos.

    鈥淚t creates vote splits in Quebec, it creates vote splits in Ontario, in British Columbia; and those vote splits usually hurt the Liberals and they help when it comes to generating seats both for federal Conservatives and the New Democrats.鈥

    PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

    When it comes to leadership and public support, the Liberals find themselves in a similar downward trend as their ballot numbers. Historically, long-term trends show the prime minister with a 鈥渂aked-in鈥 four- or five-point advantage simply because they鈥檙e the head of government.

    鈥淏ut when you check out the trend right now, you can see almost a perfect between Justin Trudeau in Pierre Poilevre,鈥 said Nanos.

    Nanos' Preferred Prime Minister numbers as of March 15, 2023.

    鈥淭rudeau's down four or five points in the last four weeks. Pierre Polievre's up two. Jagmeet Singh is at 16, which isn't a bad number for the New Democrats,鈥 said Nanos, adding that 鈥渨henever you're the incumbent prime minister and you don't have an advantage over your challenger, that's bad news.鈥

    STAKES HIGH FOR LIBERALS IN UPCOMING BUDGET

    The federal budget due on March 28 could be an opportunity for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said the 鈥渟takes are quite high鈥 for Trudeau鈥檚 minority Liberals.

    鈥淓very budget is important for whoever the government of the day happens to be, because it's usually a platform to dominate the narrative in the news and get your message out,鈥 said Nanos. But the complicating factor for the Liberals is their agreement with the NDP to support the minority Liberal government on key votes in the House of Commons to avoid triggering an election.

    鈥淭he big question is, what will there be in the federal budget that the Liberals will have, to placate or ameliorate the New Democrats? And what will [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh be asking for? I think the reality is that the NDP are probably going to support the budget, regardless, because I'm not sure if they want an election right now. But depending on how closely the Liberals appease or not appease the New Democrats, that'll probably be the first signal as to how long this particular parliament could last.鈥

    Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 29, the day after the federal budget is released.

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