Time crunch, rules mess could plague a Liberal leadership race
Calls have intensified for Justin Trudeau to resign as head of the party he almost single-handedly pulled back from the brink after a decimating electoral defeat in 2011.
Still Trudeau has been steadfast in his intention to lead the party into the next election.
But even as several former elected Liberals, party faithful and strategists declare it's time for the prime minister to step aside for fear of dragging the party down along with his personal polling numbers, many also admit a Liberal leadership race would be a risky and messy affair.
The party hasn't selected a new leader since 2013, when the Liberals changed the rules to give ordinary citizens a bigger say in who would take the reins of the party.
It was part of the board's "road map to renewal" plan to rebuild the party.
The changes allowed a political movement to form behind Trudeau, who won the race easily and reinvigorated the party after a time of crisis.
"It doesn鈥檛 matter to me if you were a Chr茅tien Liberal, or a Turner Liberal, or a Martin Liberal or any other kind of Liberal," Trudeau told the cheering crowd after being voted in.
"The era of hyphenated Liberals ends right here, right now, tonight."
His leadership did usher in a new era of Liberal unity, but Conservative strategist Ginny Roth said the party was also remade in his image.
"The Liberal party was kind of rebuilt around Trudeau as a bit of a cult of personality, and that worked when he was popular," said Roth, who served as Pierre Poilievre's director of communications during his leadership race.
Now that it's no longer true, the very identity of the party is at stake.
"I think a lot of Liberals are concerned about what a leadership race could mean, because there's no real establishment."
If Trudeau were to step aside before the next election, the party would not only need to find a new leader before the next election but also redefine what it means to be a Liberal.
"The Liberal party brand today has become synonymous with Justin Trudeau," said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.
He recently called for Trudeau to resign, but admits it's a tall order when the next election is scheduled for less than a year and a half from now. It's a risk, he said, especially under the rules that brought Trudeau to the head of the party.
The goal was to make it easier for people to vote in the Liberal leader by allowing them to join the party as a "supporter," so they could vote without having to pay for a membership.
In 2016, they went even further, eliminating party membership fees altogether.
At the time the party said it was to make the Liberals more "open and accessible."
But some strategists say it also makes the next leadership race susceptible to inference by special interest groups.
"It's obvious how the system could be taken advantage of in a leadership race," Perez said. He's particularly concerned about the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the divisive effect it has had on Canadian politics.
"I do worry about the role of special interests, who can mobilize around one issue and decide on the basis of one issue, who will lead the party."
While some decisions about a leadership race could be made by the party's board, bigger changes about the membership would require an amendment to the party constitution. That would have to go through a membership vote.
There are discussions underway to hold a party convention next spring 鈥 too late to change the rules if there is a snap leadership race.
The timeline would be tough enough just to get a new leader in place before Canadians go to the polls, though several Liberals 鈥 including Perez 鈥 say the crunch isn't insurmountable.
Leadership races usually last months, at least. Officially the leadership race when Trudeau won lasted just five months, but candidates had been gearing up for it for nearly two years.
It also took two years for the Conservatives to vote in a new leader after Stephen Harper's resignation after the 2015 election. The race that brought Pierre Poilievre to the head of the Conservatives lasted eight months.
All of those people had the luxury of time, something on short supply currently. The next election is at most 15 months away. Anyone elected leader would be thrust into a near immediate election.
In Ottawa, many have invoked former prime minister Kim Campbell as a cautionary tale. She replaced a very unpopular Brian Mulroney as the Progressive Conservative party leader and prime minister in June 1993 and lasted just six months.
She was roundly defeated in the 1993 election and the party was left with only two seats in the House of Commons.
Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin, said people have drawn the wrong conclusions from that story.
"People think that Kim Campbell was doomed. She wasn't," he said.
Campbell's poll numbers jumped after her leadership bid, she just wasn't able to sustain people's imagination once she captured it, he said.
"There's nothing that precludes the possibility that a quick leadership race could create a surge of momentum, attention and energy that you could ride straight into a general election," Reid said.
That was the story of Trudeau's father, Pierre Trudeau, when he went from a leadership race to a general election in 1968 and won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in recent history, he said.
Some Liberals have privately mused that the next leader is likely just a placeholder for the real thing, given the current chances the Liberals have of winning the next election.
While there are a host of potential candidates quietly organizing to be ready for whenever Trudeau does pull the plug, some of them may opt to sit this time out, expecting whoever wins next won't last long.
After Paul Martin's election loss in 2006, the Liberals went through two leaders who both lasted just one election, St茅phane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.
So did the Conservatives after Stephen Harper's government was defeated in 2015, with Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole also each lasting just one unsuccessful election campaign.
Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland, M茅lanie Joly, Fran莽ois-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand and Sean Fraser are all in various stages of preparing for a possible leadership run. So is Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor.
None are actively pushing Trudeau out and currently no polls have suggested there is any candidate who would do much, if any, better than him.
Reid said the most important thing for the Liberals, is to avoid a defeatist mentality.
"A party that says 'let's organize ourselves around the principle that we will be defeated,' will be defeated," he said.
"Go down swinging."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 29, 2024.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government鈥檚 three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party鈥檚 popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn鈥檛 be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Canadian family stuck in Lebanon anxiously awaits flight options amid Israeli strikes
A Canadian man who is trapped in Lebanon with his family says they are anxiously waiting for seats on a flight out of the country, as a barrage of Israeli airstrikes continues.
Yazidi woman captured by ISIS rescued in Gaza after more than a decade in captivity
A 21-year-old Yazidi woman has been rescued from Gaza where she had been held captive by Hamas for years after being trafficked by ISIS.
Scientists looked at images from space to see how fast Antarctica is turning green. Here's what they found
Parts of icy Antarctica are turning green with plant life at an alarming rate as the region is gripped by extreme heat events, according to new research, sparking concerns about the changing landscape on this vast continent.
A 21-year-old man who was charged with attempted murder in the shooting of a Toronto police officer this week was out on bail at the time of the alleged offence, court documents obtained by 愛污传媒 Toronto show.
A 6-year-old girl was kidnapped in Arkansas in 1995. Almost 30 years later, a suspect was identified
Nearly 30 years after a six-year-old girl disappeared in Western Arkansas, authorities have identified a suspect in her abduction through DNA evidence.
A Michigan man is charged with killing and dismembering a janitor he met on the Grindr dating app
Prosecutors have charged a Michigan man with killing and dismembering a janitor he met on the dating app Grindr.
NEW
A teen charged with the murder of another teen on Prince Edward Island last year has pleaded guilty to a lesser charge of manslaughter.
Haitian gang kills at least 70 people, including 3 infants, UN says
Armed men belonging to the Gran Grif gang killed at least 70 people, including three infants, as they swept through a Haitian town shooting automatic rifles at residents, a spokesperson for the United Nations' Human Rights Office said on Friday.
DEVELOPING
At least two people are dead and others are injured after a fire ripped through a century-old building near Montreal's City Hall, sources told Noovo Info.
Local Spotlight
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.
A husband and wife have been on the road trip of a lifetime and have decided to stop in Saskatchewan for the winter.
The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north
What does New Westminster's t蓹m蓹sew虛tx史 Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.
The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.
New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.