'Global concern': High stakes for Canada to have role in widening U.S.-Iran conflict, experts say
Canada will likely have a role in supporting the United States with its retaliatory attacks against Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq following a deadly drone strike against U.S. troops last weekend in Jordan, say some Canadian analysts.
When asked if Canada would be involved in the growing conflict, the federal government declined to speculate on what it would be.
"Canada strongly condemns the attack by Iran-backed groups against United States forces in Jordan," said Department of National Defence spokesperson Andr茅e-Anne Poulin in an email to CTVNews.ca, adding that Canada extends its condolences to the families of the fallen U.S. soldiers. "Canada will continue to support our partners in the fight against terrorism in the region 鈥 but we will not speculate on potential future military operations at this time."
A drone strike killed three U.S. soldiers at the Tower 22 base on Jan. 28. Two Navy SEALs also died after one went overboard and the other tried to rescue him during a Jan. 11 mission on a ship to confiscate what U.S. officials said were illicit Iranian-made weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Washington blamed the attack on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias. Iran denied any involvement in it.
The drone, which the U.S. determined was made by Iran, also wounded more than 40 troops at the base in Jordan, Reuters reported.
This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows a military base known as Tower 22 in northeastern Jordan, on Oct. 12, 2023. (Planet Labs PBC via AP) The U.S. military said it launched retaliatory airstrikes Friday in Iraq and Syria against more than 85 targets linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and the militias they support.
Syrian state media said on Friday that an "American aggression" on the sites resulted in a number of casualties and injuries.
Canada's possible role in conflict
While Ottawa won't speculate on Canada's possible role in the widening conflict, some observers expect that Canada will be involved in some way.
Ali Ghanbarpour-Dizboni, chair of the military and strategic studies program at the Royal Military College of Canada in Kingston, Ont., says it's necessary for Canada to honour its obligations toward the United States as its "most important security and commercial partner."
"Canada must show somehow support diplomatically, economically, militarily as much as it can," he said in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca. "Because the United States has the capacity to do all those strikes alone, they do not necessarily need Canada. However, the Canadian government must show support if United States needs Canada because it's also about the alliance between the two countries."
While Ghanbarpour-Dizboni doesn't believe Canada will be directly involved, he said "the Canadian Forces will be involved somehow ... within the framework of the bilateral or multilateral co-operation, providing assistance to American forces."
Since Canada is already helping NATO partners such as in Ukraine, he said it will be "another balancing act that Canada has to do in terms of resources and commitment."
Ghanbarpour-Dizboni expects Canada to provide logistical or general assistance involving airstrikes and drone strikes rather than military combat since the U.S. doesn't want to have boots on the ground.
Walter Dorn, a professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College and Canadian Forces College in Toronto, believes Canada's role will be "very minor." He anticipates it will be similar to Canada's response in helping the multinational coalition defend commercial ships in the Red Sea, a major artery for global trade.
In this photo provided by the Royal Navy a view of HMS Diamond from the ship's bridge, firing Sea Viper missiles at an incoming Houthi drone, on the Red Sea, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. (LPhot Chris Sellars/Royal Navy via AP)Reuters has reported that Iranian-backed Houthi militants have been in support of Palestinian militant group Hamas in its war with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
"Canada is likely to endorse U.S. actions against Iranian-backed groups, given that Canada will likely receive intelligence on the reasons for attacking these groups," Dorn said in an email to CTVNews.ca, though he cautions that the intelligence could be wrong, such as the case with incorrect allegations and faulty intelligence about weapons of mass destruction held by then Iraqi president Saddam Hussein two decades ago.
James Horncastle, assistant professor and the Edward and Emily McWhinney professor in international relations at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, B.C., says Canada will likely have an "indirect" role in the conflict.
"These efforts make sense both in terms of Canada鈥檚 alliance with the United States and in terms of recognizing that Canada鈥檚 direct force projection capabilities are limited," he said in an email to CTVNews.ca.
As an example, if the United States launches "cyber efforts" against Iran, he anticipates that Canada will provide support, either officially or unofficially, through its membership in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance.
'A threat to the entire world'
Aurel Braun, professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto and associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, says it's necessary for Canada to have a role and support its allies like the U.S.
"We are being challenged by Iran. And this is what we need to understand that what happens inside Iraq, what is happening with the Houthi, what's happening with Hamas, all go back to one central address. And that central address is 鈥 Iran," he said in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca.
He said Iran has "an incredibly dangerous" and "extremely repressive" regime with a fanatical interpretation of Islam. The regime is anti-democratic with ambitions to dominate the Middle East, destroy its enemies, drive western powers out of the region and acquire nuclear weapons, he added.
"This is not just an American concern, this is a regional concern. And ultimately, it is a global concern," he said. "This regime, if it gets nuclear weapons, it will be a threat to the entire world. 鈥 And so, if we don't do our share, we are in a sense, shirking our international responsibilities.
An American army carry team salutes the remains of U.S. Army Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Ga., Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Ga., and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Ga., at Dover Air Force Base, Del., Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Sanders was killed in a drone attack in Jordan on Jan. 28. (AP Photo/Matt聽Rourke)Braun said the U.S. needs to target Iran, rather than its proxies. So far, he says "deterrence" 鈥 a psychological relationship that persuades the other side that the cost of attacking it would outweigh the benefits of doing so -- isn't working. Iranian proxies continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and Americans in the region, he noted as a few examples.
"The octopus is the Iranian theocracy that has unlimited ambitions and has been playing very cleverly, the game of chess where the west have been playing checkers," Braun said. "So far, we have done very poorly. 鈥 But the deterrence is not working. At least, not well against Iran."
Peter Denton, an associate professor in the Department of History at the Royal Military College of Canada in Kingston, Ont., has a different view. He doesn't believe Canada should be involved in the conflict with Iran and its proxies.
"Even given that for technical reasons our military support would be largely symbolic, we should not be supporting military action in a theatre where we will have no combat decision-making role, especially using the ethical-murky weapons of missiles, rockets and drones," Denton said in an email to CTVNews.ca. "Further, the last thing the world needs is another regional conflict 鈥 we need wiser heads on all sides, if our children are going to inherit anything more than a bombed-out, over-heated shell of what the world (and civilization) used to be."
He suggests that Canada should signal its support for moderates in Iran who are working towards peace and prosperity. "More rockets and drones will not bring about peace 鈥 but they will ensure greater profits for the munitions-makers, on all sides, and will encourage the extremist elements to continue the bloodshed," he said.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government鈥檚 three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party鈥檚 popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn鈥檛 be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
WATCH LIVE
The two people who died in a major fire in Old Montreal on Friday were a mother and her seven-year-old daughter, sources told Noovo Info.
Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, could intensify as a hurricane threatening Florida
Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. It is located 220 miles (355 kilometres) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.
The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.
Frequent drinking of fizzy beverages and fruit juice are linked to an increased risk of stroke: research
New data raises questions about the drinks people consume and the potential risks associated with them, according to researchers at Galway University in Ireland, in partnership with Hamilton鈥檚 McMaster University.
A 30-year-old northwestern Ontario woman has been charged with arson following a structure fire Thursday night, police say.
Ontario Provincial Police have laid stunt charges against a driver caught speeding 75 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 417 in Ottawa's west end.
Travelling on a budget can be stressful, but there are ways you can ensure you're getting the best deal on flights as the holiday season approaches.
A French judge in a shocking rape case allows the public to see some of the video evidence
A French judge in the trial of dozens of men accused of raping an unconscious woman whose now former husband had repeatedly drugged her so that he and others could assault her decided on Friday to allow the public to see some of the video recordings of the alleged rapes.
The Menendez brothers case is not the only one that's been affected by a true crime documentary
Being an armchair detective has turned into an American obsession, fueled by an abundance of true-crime content in podcasts and television series. But some of those projects have sparked actual legal developments.
Local Spotlight
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.
A husband and wife have been on the road trip of a lifetime and have decided to stop in Saskatchewan for the winter.
The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north
What does New Westminster's t蓹m蓹sew虛tx史 Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.
The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.
New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.