OTTAWA -- Across the NAFTA negotiating table, Canada is facing a protectionist âpolitical masterâ in Donald Trump and as a result, Canadians should expect increased conflict in the third round of trade talks in Ottawa, says Rona Ambrose, a member of Canadaâs NAFTA Advisory Council.
âThis is a political negotiation and Trump is in charge, so yes we have to be very wary of that,â said Ambrose in an interview with Evan Solomon, host of CTVâs Question Period. âHe is the political master.â
U.S. President Donald Trump triggered the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and has threatened to pull the U.S. out of it if he isnât able to renegotiate improved terms for his country.
âThe starting point is âwe donât like NAFTA and we think itâs not working.â Thatâs a pretty tough place to start from,â said the former interim leader of the Conservative Party.
With negotiators meeting in Ottawa this weekend and into next week for round three of the renegotiations of the 23-year-old trade deal, Ambrose said to expect escalating conflict and contrast between the nations, but no knockout punches, yet.
âI think we canât be too naive to think that this is going to go really easily, and will be wrapped up really quickly, and that the Americans are going to be easy to deal with because theyâve got a Trump agenda,â Ambrose said.
After round two of NAFTA talks saw the U.S. target Mexican labour standards and now reports of anxiety within the Canadian auto sector over the Americans seeking more U.S. content, Trumpâs team has made it clear they arenât angling for all three countries to get their fair share, itâs about seeing more being made in America, she said.
âThis is a free trade negotiation, but weâre sitting across the table from someone who isnât necessarily talking free trade. Theyâre talking about America first, theyâre talking in a very protectionist way about the American economy. Theyâre talking almost in language of economic nationalism,â Ambrose said.
Canadaâs plan to handle U.S. stance
To counter this push from Canadaâs neighbour to the south, Ambrose said Canadian negotiations have to hold their ground on wanting to see the deal improved in areas like digital and clean technology, things she says is needed for the current and future success of the Canadian economy.
She said unlike the Americans, Canada wonât be looking to get more of everything, but rather want to see increased trade liberalization across North America.
Ahead of NAFTA renegotiations, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland spelled out that Canadaâs priorities would include making the deal âmore progressive,â by adding new chapters on indigenous rights and gender, and strengthening labour and environmental protections.
Canadaâs âred lineâ
Another potential source of conflict between Canada and the U.S. in these talks is Canadaâs âreal red lineâ: Chapter 19, the dispute resolution mechanism.
Ambrose said sheâs heard firsthand from the American administration that they want to do away with it because they feel it often doesnât rule in their favour.
Under Chapter 19, a panel of representatives from all three countries gets activated if one party isnât playing by the trade rules, bypassing the court system for what Ambrose classified as a more impartial arbiter.
If the Americans are successful in removing it, it could mean disputes between Canada and the U.S would have to go through a U.S. court, something Ambrose said Canadians should be rightly suspicious of.
Deal by 2018 an âoptimisticâ timeline
Ambrose said considering all this, the aim to have the deal finalized by the end of this year or early 2018 is âreally optimistic,â but the further into next year talks go, the more likely the negotiations will get caught up by political agendas.
The impetus for getting it done by then stems largely from the timing of the U.S. midterm elections in November of next year, and Mexicoâs general election in July 2018.
âThereâs so many scenarios here and I donât think count on wrapping this up quickly and cleanly by the end of December,â Ambrose said.
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