Don Martin: Poilievre has a nagging problem or two he has to fix if he wants to replace Trudeau as prime minister
For someone prone to answer-defying weasel words, Justin Trudeau was unequivocally emphatic during his weekend appearance on the influential Quebec television show “Tout le monde en parle”: He will lead the Liberals into the next election. Definitely. For sure. Period.
Of course, the prime minister HAS to say that when there’s two years left in his longevity pact with the NDP. That is why I was still prepared to stick with my 2024 winter forecast of Trudeau taking his retirement walk-in-the-snow.
But my francophone friends, who could detect a subtle waffle in his language or a commitment caveat in his tone, insist it was pretty much a rock-solid, no-retreat-possible vow to seek a fourth straight mandate.
I will thus surrender to the now-conventional wisdom that Trudeau is, unfathomably, running again.
Winning again is another matter entirely given the fury and loathing in the land against this prime minister, a polarizing anti-Trudeau sentiment that equals or exceeds anything his father generated during his four terms.
But the more difficult task now falls to his chief rival, passing just 200 days as leader of the Conservative party.
Pierre Poilievre has a nagging problem or two he has to fix if he wants to replace Trudeau as prime minister.
For starters, he has to understand the preachy rectitude of the 1990s’ Reform Party, which he seems determined to resurrect as the electoral home for angry white men, cannot win a general election in 2023.
Somewhere along the bumpy post-Harper road, Poilievre and his Reform-era sidekicks calcified their old-school principles and appear ready to accept a dug-in defeat over a softened-image victory.
Why? It would seem so easy for Poilievre to stick with a few economic policy essentials, advocate for inflation-whacked demographics, harp on Trudeau’s endless stream of missteps and steer clear of flirting with Freedom Convoy alumni, far-right European politicians and controversial commentator Jordan Peterson.
And yet . . . he doesn’t.
Chanting “jail not bail” or “go-woke, go-broke” is all very catchy while ideas such as ending safe injection sites and suing pharmaceutical companies to pay for the tragic cost of opioid addictions may be eye candy for his base, but they’re not middle-ground vote-shifting positions.
WHAT PIERRE POILIEVRE NEEDS TO DO TO SEAL THE DEAL
To seal the deal with those voters, to create a lasting Conservative regime stretching beyond any one-off election win, Poilievre has to grow a more likable personality and stand on a wider-appeal platform, which doesn’t sound like a fossil from the pre-Harper Stone Age.
Perhaps Poilievre simply doesn’t understand the most obvious fact of political life he will face in the next 20 months: It’s a majority Conservative government or bust.
Bereft of willing dance partners – Bloc Quebecois or NDP support for a fledgling Conservative government sits somewhere between implausible and impossible - a minority win for Poilievre will send him waltzing onto the Commons floor alone.
Denied a majority, his lifespan as prime minister would, at very best, be the second coming of Joe Clark.
So he needs to find a middle ground of policies and positions which will elect another 44 Conservative MPs to reach the majority magic number of 169 seats, a very tough assignment for a leader denied a political honeymoon.
That entails making the progressive elements of his caucus more visible and vocal. It requires bolstering the comfort level of apprehensive women voters by giving some hint of embracing feminism. It demands reconnecting with ethnic communities.
And it definitely means that when MPs receive nationally televised attention during must-watch committee hearing controversies, the Conservatives should send out intelligent voices instead of unleashing their snarling pack of bloodthirsty hyena MPs to howl partisan questions at incredulous witnesses.
Position compromise will have its limitations. Too much territorial softening could bring the seatless People’s Party back from the dead to chip away crucial support from Conservative bedrock.
But with the leaders’ race card seemingly set and 2024 now the very likely election year, an epic showdown is taking shape between Trudeau defending a broken record and Poilievre promising to be the tough-love agent of post-Liberal change.
It shouldn’t be a fair fight: The Liberal best-before date is expiring in a mushroom cloud of ethical shortcomings, fiscal ineptitude and economic mismanagement.
The Conservatives, seemingly united behind their fiery leader and savouring every deep bite into Liberal credibility, should be able to win in a walk.
But now that he knows the name of his electoral enemy, Poilievre must aggressively prepare to fight a campaign that doesn’t depend on Trudeau talking himself out of the job or fed-up Liberal voters just staying home.
Without image overhaul to attract wider appeal, Poilievre will be seen by voters as Pee Wee Herman’s angry twin selling himself to unimpressed Canadians as the hard-right hope to fix a country that is both broke and broken. That might not be good enough to win.
That’s the bottom line…..
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Canada will cut its permanent immigration levels by at least 20 per cent
Canada will lower the number of permanent immigrants it allows into the country by at least 20 per cent from its previous target of 500,000, ۴ý confirmed Wednesday.
The president and CEO of New Brunswick-based Covered Bridge Potato Chips is taking an 'extended leave of absence' after being charged with domestic violence this past weekend.
A memorial is growing outside a Walmart in Halifax after a 19-year-old employee was found dead inside an oven in the store Saturday night.
Trudeau says Liberals 'strong and united' despite caucus dissent
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the Liberal party is 'strong and united,' despite efforts from within his caucus to oust him as leader.
'Canadians can breathe a sigh of relief': Bank of Canada governor on interest rate cut
The Bank of Canada made a sizable cut to its key lending rate Wednesday from 4.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent as the global economy continues to expand. The half percentage point cut is the fourth rate cut in a row by the central bank as inflation dropped from 2.7 per cent in June to 1.6 per cent in September.
A search has started at Prairie Green Landfill for the remains of two victims of a serial killer.
He is a familiar face to residents of a neighbourhood just west of Roncesvalles Avenue.
Canada's discount airline is suspending operations to and from Saskatoon.
A new report suggests that Canadians' exposure to a radioactive gas is increasing, putting millions of people at a higher risk of developing lung cancer.
Local Spotlight
He is a familiar face to residents of a neighbourhood just west of Roncesvalles Avenue.
A meteor lit up our region's sky last night – with a large fireball shooting across the horizon over Lake Erie at around 7:00 p.m.
Residents of Ottawa's Rideauview neighbourhood say an aggressive wild turkey has become a problem.
A man who lost his life while trying to rescue people from floodwaters, and a 13-year-old boy who saved his family from a dog attack, are among the Nova Scotians who received a medal for bravery Tuesday.
A newly minted Winnipegger is hoping a world record attempt will help bring awareness for the need for more pump track facilities in the city.
A Springfield, Ont. man is being hailed a 'hero' after running into his burning home to save his two infant children.
Hortense Anglin was the oldest graduate to make her way across the platform at York University's Fall Convocation ceremony this week. At the age of 87, she graduated with an Honours degree in Religious Studies.
Looking for a scare with good intentions this Halloween season? The ghosts and ghouls of Eganville, Ont. invite families to tour the Haunted Walk at Lekbor Manor.
The image of a sleepy Saskatchewan small town with 'not a lot going on' is a well-known anecdote. However, one Saskatchewan company is hoping to change that – and allow communities both on and off the beaten path to share their stories and advertise what they have to offer.