A Russian convoy sent into Ukraine in violation of the countryâs borders is the latest act of desperation from Moscow as rebels continue to lose key ground, analysts say.
In what Ukraine is calling a âdirect invasion,â more than 130 trucks rolled across the border in a rebel-held part of the country Friday. Russia insists the convoy is carrying humanitarian aid, but critics called the move an attempt to arm and support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The trucks started to return to Russia on Saturday.
The convoy, which had been idling near the border for nearly two weeks, moved just days before Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko are scheduled to attend a multilateral summit in Belarus, where top European officials will attempt to de-escalate the situation at the negotiating table.
Mark Stech, executive director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, says the violation of Ukraineâs borders is a strategic move by Russia to show its teeth ahead of the summit.
âRussia has had a pattern that before any major international meeting, they would ⌠escalate their violence in order to be in a position at negotiating table (to) offer to stop that escalation and seem to have compromised something by giving up nothing,â Stech said in an interview on CTVâs News Channel on Friday.
The hostile move by Russia is a âblatant attemptâ to reinforce insurgents in eastern Ukraine and de-stabilize the region, Stech said.
âThey are definitely losing their fight in eastern Ukraine,â he said. âThe sanctions introduced by the west are starting to work and hurt their economy, and I think they are desperate.â
Diplomatic challenge 'extremely steep'
Dominique Arel, chair of Ukrainian studies at the University of Ottawa, called the convoyâs violation of Ukraineâs borders into cities like Luhansk an âextremely dangerous developmentâ that could lead to all-out urban warfare after weeks of intense shelling.
âHow do you actually defeat an urban insurgency? Itâs one thing to take one village after the other âŚ. But urban warfare, itâs something else,â Arel said on News Channel. âIâm not sure weâre really at the end game.â
Ahead of the summit, Arel said the diplomatic challenge is âextremely steep.â
âRussia refuses to acknowledge that it is actually sending military aid to the rebels, and refuses then to acknowledge that the border between Russia and Ukraine needs to be secured,â he said.
A political settlement is ultimately necessary to bring security, Arel said.
âA claim of victory will not solve anything, especially if the border is not secure,â Arel said. âBut with whom, exactly, are you negotiating? Obviously, Ukraine and Russia needs to negotiate, but at ground level, with whom are you talking to if the actual de facto âŚ. leaders of this rebellion are actually Russian citizens⌠thatâs the big challenge.â