OTTAWA -- If bad leaders come in threes, this weekâs storm of ugly headlines clearly lump Erin OâToole into the trifecta of disastrous Conservative leaders alongside Andrew Scheer and Stockwell Day.
But the worst may now be behind OâToole as his party prepares to return to Parliament in five days to take aim at the real target, specifically Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Behind closed doors on Wednesday, the Conservative caucus adopted a crisis-what-crisis? view of the challenges being unleashed at their leader of just 15 months.
Usually-reliable sources saying there was little sign that calls for an early review of OâTooleâs reign are gaining traction among MPs or that his heavy-handed discipline of dissidents was considered unacceptably harsh.
Granted, using voicemail to tell Senator Denise Batters sheâd been booted as a Conservative parliamentarian for launching a leadership review petition was cowardly.
OâToole shouldâve had the guts to look her in the eye when the knife went in and perhaps explain that she could return to the caucus if the leadership petition fails to attract enough signatures.
But Batters is just a senator, after all, and the Red Chamber is no longer filled with napping appointees who mull sober second thoughts over what party leaders tell them to think.
Now dominated by independents, albeit liberal-leaning Trudeau appointees for the most part, thereâs almost no point in allowing appointed senators to parade the Conservative flag through the upper house anymore. They should all be thrown out of the caucus. But I digress.
Perhaps the best news for OâToole on Wednesday were indications the so-called Civil Liberties Caucus of anti-vaccine defenders -- essentially Andrew Scheer loyalists and anti-abortion MPs engaging a new crusade -- has fizzled to the fringe. As one MP confided, âthey were never really a thing anyway.â
If so, that eliminates a major parliamentary migraine for OâToole once heâs back in the House because you just know Trudeau will be salivating to throw feathery tar at the entire party as dangerous defenders of vaccination holdouts.
In the big picture, observers in the caucus room tell me at most a dozen MPs are suspected of being offside with OâTooleâs leadership, but none are expected to go public with their views. As one former insider described it, theyâre just âchocolate soldiersâ who will melt in the heat of battle.
Now, this is not to say Erin OâToole is suddenly basking in a caucus kumbaya love-in where heâs safe from a plank-walking until the next election.
His polling popularity is abysmal and likely to dip even further amid the noise of the mutinous rebels. His moderation of hard-right ideological edges has created more true-blue enemies than Senator Batters. And without a probable election victory in sight, he doesnât have cabinet considerations to dangle as a way to enforce discipline among the doubters.
But a return to Parliament brings opportunities for an Official Opposition while waiting-around merely vacates space for internal mischief-making.
If Trudeau returns from Washington this week without any face-saving gifts from President Joe Biden while Buy American protectionism ramps back up to Trump-like levels, well, that hands over high-calibre ammo for a Conservative attack in the House of Commons next week.
(As an aside, I wouldnât be surprising if Trudeau misses most of next week in the Commons to spread empathy and many millions of relief dollars around flood-ravaged B.C.. Itâs arguably a justified mercy mission to this yearâs worst natural disaster, but also delivers irresistible prime ministerial optics).
And while curbing inflation and rebuilding broken supply chains are beyond the fix-it abilities of any prime minister, that doesnât mean opposition parties canât have a field day trying to connect public anger to Trudeau economic mismanagement.
After a few very bad few weeks, Erin OâToole is now counting on his influential MPs to shame rebel MPs quietly into line and contain the infection of OâToole review fever to the fringe.
The aim now is to target on Trudeau and stop the circled Conservative wagons from shooting inwards -- at him.
Thatâs the bottom line.