A group of World Health Organization experts will meet this month to decide whether the world has turned the corner in the fight against the global swine flu pandemic, a senior official said Thursday.
"What we are hoping for is that the worst is behind us," Keiji Fukuda, the agency's top influenza expert, told a news conference.
"We hope that the worst is over but you can't suddenly let down your guard."
WHO's emergency committee will convene later this month to make a recommendation on the state of the H1N1 pandemic to WHO Director-General Margaret Chan.
Chan will make the final decision on whether the pandemic, declared last June, has entered it's post-peak or transition phase.
"This is a period in which we consider that the pandemic is still continuing," said Fukuda.
Even if the WHO decides the pandemic has peaked, the virus remains active and will continue to cause illness and death, Fukuda said. It could continue to flare up in some regions, as it had done recently in West Africa, he said.
"The ending of a pandemic cannot be construed an abrupt on-or-off situation."
Laboratory-confirmed deaths total more than 15,000, but the real toll is likely to be much higher, although that will not be established for a year or two, he said.
At the meeting, the experts will consider what measures governments should take to continue monitoring and combating the spread of the disease, he said. The date of the meeting had not yet been set.
There have been over 15,000 laboratory confirmed deaths worldwide since the swine flu outbreak began in North America last spring. WHO says the actual death toll is probably much higher, but a final figure won't be available for up to two years.
Another group of influenza experts will meet next week to make recommendations on the composition of the flu vaccine for the next Northern Hemisphere flu season, he said. The recommendations will be published on Feb. 18.
WHO experts will also examine whether to advise governments and drug companies to include the swine flu strain in future vaccines for seasonal influenza, a move Fukuda said was likely given that the H1N1 strain will continue circulating for some time.
Although infections have declined in the Northern Hemisphere lately, WHO says it is still receiving reports of new outbreaks elsewhere, including most recently in West Africa.
