愛污传媒

Skip to main content

Study finds that climate change added 10 per cent to Hurricane Ian's rainfall

Share

Climate change added at least 10 per cent more rain to Hurricane Ian, a study prepared immediately after the storm shows.

Thursday's research, which is not peer-reviewed, compared peak rainfall rates during the real storm to about 20 different computer scenarios of a model with Hurricane Ian's characteristics slamming into the Sunshine State in a world with no human-caused climate change.

"The real storm was 10 per cent wetter than the storm that might have been," said Lawrence Berkeley National Lab climate scientist Michael Wehner, study co-author.

Forecasters predicted Ian will have dropped up to two feet (61 centimetres) of rain in parts of Florida by the time it stopped.

Wehner and Kevin Reed, an atmospheric scientist at Stony Brook University, published a study in Nature Communications earlier this year looking at the hurricanes of 2020 and found during their rainiest three-hour periods they were more than 10 per cent wetter than in a world without greenhouse gases trapping heat. Wehner and Reed applied the same scientifically accepted attribution technique to Hurricane Ian.

A long-time rule of physics is that for every extra degree of warmth Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), the air in the atmosphere can hold seven per cent more water. This week the Gulf of Mexico was 0.8 degrees warmer than normal, which should have meant about five per cent more rain. Reality turned out to be even worse. The flash study found the hurricane dropped double that -- 10 per cent more rain.

Ten percent may not sound like a lot, but 10 per cent of 20 inches (50 centimetres) is two inches (five centimetres), which is a lot of rain, especially on top of the 20 inches that already fell, Reed said.

Other studies have seen the same feedback mechanisms of stronger storms in warmer weather, said Princeton University atmospheric scientist Gabriel Vecchi, who wasn't part of the study.

MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel said in general, a warmer world does make storms rainier. But he said he is uncomfortable drawing conclusions about individual storms.

"This business above very very heavy rain is something we've expected to see because of climate change," he said. "We'll see more storms like Ian."

Princeton's Vecchi said in an email that if the world is going to bounce back from disasters "we need to plan for wetter storms going forward, since global warming isn't going to go away."

CTVNews.ca Top Stories

A driver suffered only minor injuries after going airborne in a residential neighbourhood in Maple Ridge, B.C., on Friday, the car eventually landing on its roof in someone鈥檚 backyard.

The owners of a North York condominium say they are facing a $70,000 special assessment to fix their building's parking garage. '$70,000 is a lot of money. It makes me very nervous and stressed out of nowhere for this huge debt to come in,' said Ligeng Guo.

Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.

The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.

Local Spotlight

Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.

From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.

A husband and wife have been on the road trip of a lifetime and have decided to stop in Saskatchewan for the winter.

The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.

A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.

Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north

What does New Westminster's t蓹m蓹sew虛tx史 Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.

The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.

New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.