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    • Nine out of 10 Canadians think a 2023 recession is at least 'somewhat likely': Nanos poll

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    Nine out of 10 Canadians believe there could be a recession in 2023, according to a new national survey, with four out of 10 calling it “likely.”

    A new survey conducted by Nanos Research on behalf of ۴ý asked more than 1,000 Canadians if they believed it was likely Canada would have a recession next year.

    The vast majority answered that it was “somewhat likely” (44 per cent) or “likely" (42 per cent).

    Less than one per cent believed a recession next year was “not likely,” while around seven per cent said it was “somewhat not likely” and six per cent were unsure.

    This survey comes after a Royal Bank of Canada report predicted in October that Canada could be headed for a recession as early as the first quarter of 2023.

    That same report found that the average Canadian household could lose $3,000 of buying power next year. A myriad of factors are contributing to this threat of recession, experts say, with cooling housing markets and unemployment levels showing the weakening of our economy.

    High inflation has been a recurring issue in 2022, with grocery prices climbing at a pace not seen in decades within the last few months, according to Statistics Canada.

    HOW THE CANADIAN OUTLOOK VARIES

    Although a strong majority of Canadians are predicting a potential recession, according to this new survey, those results were not even across the board.

    Men were slightly more likely to answer that a recession was somewhat likely/likely, at 88 per cent compared to 85 per cent of women, although the same 7.5 per cent of men and women believed it was somewhat unlikely/likely.

    When split into age brackets, those aged 35 to 54 were the most likely to believe that a recession was coming in 2023, with 90.4 per cent answering likely/somewhat likely, compared to 88.4 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 years, and 82.6 per cent of those aged 55 plus.

    The difference was more stark when it came to the percentage of respondents who believed a recession was somewhat unlikely/unlikely, with the percentages increasing as the ages of respondents did. Just 2.7 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds thought a 2023 recession was at least somewhat unlikely, compared to 6.5 per cent of 35- to 54-year-olds and 11.3 per cent of those aged 55 plus.

    The rates of those who answered that a recession was at least somewhat likely were relatively even across the provinces, with 87 to 88 per cent of the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario choosing this option.

    Around 84 per cent of respondents from the Prairies and 84.9 per cent of respondents from British Columbia answered that they believed a recession in 2023 was at least somewhat likely.

    METHODOLOGY

    Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1025 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between Nov. 27 and 29, 2022, as part of an omnibus survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

    Individuals randomly called using random digit dialing with a maximum of five call backs.

    The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

    This study was commissioned by ۴ý and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.

    Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

     

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