The World Bank says commodity prices that reached historically elevated levels because of the war in Ukraine will remain high through the end of 2024.
The agency's says energy prices, food and fertilizer have sustained the largest commodity shock since the 1970s.
"As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in trade of food, fuel and fertilizers," stated Indermit Gill, the World Bank's vice-president for equitable growth, finance and institutions.
Energy prices, which over the past two years have sustained the biggest increases since the 1973 oil crisis, are expected to rise more than 50 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024.
Global Brent crude oil prices, currently at about US$105 per barrel, are expected to average US$100 in 2022. That's the highest level since 2013 and an increase of more than 40 per cent compared with 2021. West Texas Intermediate rebounded Tuesday to about $101 per barrel.
Brent prices are expected to moderate to US$92 in 2023 -- well above the five-year average of US$60 a barrel.
European natural-gas prices are expected to be twice as high in 2022 as they were in 2021, while coal prices are expected to be 80 per cent higher, with both prices at all-time highs. High natural gas prices raise fertilizer prices, putting pressure on agricultural prices.
Non-energy prices, including agriculture -- of which Russia and Ukraine are big producers -- and metals, are projected to increase almost 20 per cent in 2022 and will also moderate in the following years.
Commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average.
The World Bank added that a prolonged war or additional sanctions on Russia could boost prices even higher and make them more volatile than currently projected.
"Commodity markets are experiencing one of the largest supply shocks in decades because of the war in Ukraine," added Ayhan Kose, director of the group that produced the report.
"The resulting increase in food and energy prices is taking a significant human and economic toll -- and it will likely stall progress in reducing poverty. Higher commodity prices exacerbate already elevated inflationary pressures around the world."
Wheat prices are forecast to increase more than 40 per cent, reaching an all-time high this year. That will put pressure on developing economies that rely on wheat imports, especially from Russia and Ukraine.
Metal prices are projected to increase by 16 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 but will remain at elevated levels.
The report said higher prices threaten to disrupt or delay the transition to cleaner forms of energy with several countries announcing plans to boost production of fossil fuels, while high metal prices are driving up the cost of renewable energy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 26, 2022
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Trash carried by a North Korean balloon fell on the presidential compound in central Seoul on Thursday, officials said, the second such case in recent months that raise concerns about the vulnerability of key South Korean sites during potential North Korean aggression.
The Israeli military has forced Palestinians to enter potentially booby-trapped houses and tunnels in Gaza to avoid putting its troops in harm’s way, according to an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and five former detainees.
British killer nurse Lucy Letby lost her bid Thursday to challenge her conviction for the attempted murder of a baby girl in her care.
France pledged to provide a 100-million euro (US$108-million) package to support Lebanon at an international conference Thursday, as President Emmanuel Macron said "massive aid" is needed to support the country where war between Hezbollah militants and Israel has displaced a million people, killed over 2,500, and deepened an economic crisis.
Widespread flooding and landslides set off by a tropical storm in the northeastern Philippines on Thursday left at least 24 people dead, swept away cars and prompted authorities to scramble for motorboats to rescue trapped villagers, some on roofs.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the Liberal party is 'strong and united,' despite efforts from within his caucus to oust him as leader.
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Vancouver Fire Rescue Services received its first shipment of new firefighting gear on Wednesday, advancing the department's plans to reduce cancer risk for its members.
Officials in Hong Kong said Wednesday they have discovered dinosaur fossils in the city for the first time on a remote, uninhabited island that's part of a geopark.
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Canada's discount airline is suspending operations to and from Saskatoon.
Equifax Inc. is launching a program to allow newcomers to transfer their foreign credit history to Canada.
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Chris Boucher was back, for at least one game. The veteran forward spent most of last season at the far end of the Toronto Raptors' bench, rarely seeing playing time.
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A senior executive for Volkswagen in China has been deported for allegedly using cocaine and marijuana while on vacation in Thailand, according to Chinese authorities and German media reports.
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He is a familiar face to residents of a neighbourhood just west of Roncesvalles Avenue.
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Legend has it that on a dark evening in 1988, friends of Supt. Joe Atherton quietly buried his body on the site of the old provincial RCMP headquarters in Vancouver.
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Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante announced Wednesday she would not seek a third mandate. Her decision has many talking about the demands of municipal leadership, particularly for women.
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Federal housing minister Sean Fraser says he’s going to work directly with the cities of Saskatoon and Regina to tackle homeless encampments, after the province ignored his funding offer last month.
Detective Robert Hofstetter examined Erb’s home after her death and came to several conclusions based on the blood stains he found there.
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Federal housing minister Sean Fraser says he’s going to work directly with the cities of Saskatoon and Regina to tackle homeless encampments, after the province ignored his funding offer last month.
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Sudbury police say a weapons call about a man pointing a gun at a woman in the city’s West End on Tuesday afternoon led to multiple charges.
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David Musyj said the process of establishing a new board continues, stressing that it took a longtime for the hospital group to get into the situation it's in and it will take time to make things right.
A 27-year-old man is miraculously alive after his pickup went over Hawk Cliff near Port Stanley. Fire fighters estimate that from the top to bottom of the embankment is around 270 feet.
Under tough cross-examination at the London courthouse on Wednesday, Rachel Johnson, 21, was asked a number of times why there was a delay in calling 911
A haunted house in the Ontario Town of Innisfil is causing a real scare for some people a week before Halloween.
Barrie police conducted a search on Wednesday of the last place Autumn Shaganash was seen in hopes of giving her family some answers to her mysterious disappearance.
Causing a disturbance at an Orillia shop drew the attention of local police.
In the Town of Tecumseh, residents and athletes alike are facing a pickleball problem that may prove costly.
About 3,155 threats have been detected by the artificial intelligence-powered security system at Windsor Regional Hospital over the past year.
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Legend has it that on a dark evening in 1988, friends of Supt. Joe Atherton quietly buried his body on the site of the old provincial RCMP headquarters in Vancouver.
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Dave Lindsey began growing giant pumpkins to bring a bit of magic to his grandkids' Halloween.
A U.S. District Court judge in Montana has sentenced a 27-year-old man from Kelowna, B.C., to 18 months in prison for using fake names to buy guns with the aim of selling them in Canada.
Nearly two years after a man was stabbed to death in downtown Kelowna, RCMP have made an arrest in the case.
A Lethbridge recovery centre, tasked with helping residents struggling with addictions, is celebrating its first year of success in the community.
Graduate students looking to become mental-health professionals will have more opportunities to study in the University of Lethbridge’s Master of Education Counselling Psychology program.
A dazzling light display is making its return to Lethbridge this holiday season.
The lack of 24-hour public washrooms has been a long-standing issue in the Sault, especially considering the rise in homelessness.
The union representing the fire rangers with the Ministry of Natural Resources says money won’t fix the systemic problems in the workplace.
Rallies by a group called Voices Against Violence took place across the country on Monday, including Sault Ste. Marie.
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Police in western Newfoundland say a 77-year-old man visiting the province from Kansas is missing after a fire at a hotel in Deer Lake, N.L.
At 2 p.m. on Thursday, the scene at the Lions Club in Clarenville, N.L., rivalled any rowdy St. John's bar that thumps with music late on a weekend night.
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