A majority of the U.S's business economists expect a recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates.
Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession sometime this year, the same proportion who said so in the NABE's survey in December. But only a quarter think a recession will have begun by the end of March, only half the proportion who had thought so in December.
The findings, reflecting a survey of economists from businesses, trade associations and academia, were released Monday.
A third of the economists who responded to the survey now expect a recession to begin in the April-June quarter. One-fifth think it will start in the July-September quarter.
The delay in the economists' expectations of when a downturn will begin follows a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in a strenuous effort to slow growth and curb high inflation.
In January, employers added more than a half-million jobs, and the unemployment rate reached 3.4 per cent, the lowest level since 1969.
And sales at retail stores and restaurants jumped 3 per cent in January, the sharpest monthly gain in nearly two years. That suggested that consumers as a whole, who drive most of the economy's growth, still feel financially healthy and willing to spend.
At the same time, several government releases also showed that inflation shot back up in January after weakening for several months, fanning fears that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate even higher than was previously expected. When the Fed lifts its key rate, it typically leads to more expensive mortgages, auto loans and credit card borrowing. Interest rates on business loans also rise.
Tighter credit can then weaken the economy and even cause a recession. Economic research released Friday found that the Fed has never managed to reduce inflation from the high levels it has recently reached without causing a recession.
Donald Trump returned on Saturday to the Pennsylvania fairgrounds where he was nearly assassinated in July, holding a sprawling rally with thousands of supporters in a critical swing state Trump hopes to return to his column in November's election.
The owners of a North York condominium say they are facing a $70,000 special assessment to fix their building's parking garage. '$70,000 is a lot of money. It makes me very nervous and stressed out of nowhere for this huge debt to come in,' said Ligeng Guo.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. It is located 220 miles (355 kilometres) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.
The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.
New data raises questions about the drinks people consume and the potential risks associated with them, according to researchers at Galway University in Ireland, in partnership with Hamilton鈥檚 McMaster University.
A 30-year-old northwestern Ontario woman has been charged with arson following a structure fire Thursday night, police say.
Argentine star Lionel Messi was on the bench to start Inter Miami CF's game in Toronto on Saturday.
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Demonstrators converged on downtown Ottawa Saturday afternoon as part of a global day of action to protest Israel's military actions in the Middle East.
An organization who has assisted in locating 40 missing people since 2018, has its sights set on the Thames River near Cavendish Park in London, Ont.
Ontario Provincial Police have laid stunt charges against a driver caught speeding 75 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 417 in Ottawa's west end.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.
Fedaa Nassar says any time she has heard the phone ring in the last year, she becomes overwhelmed with anxiety.
Powerful new explosions rocked Beirut's southern suburbs late Saturday as Israel expanded its bombardment in Lebanon, striking a Palestinian refugee camp deep in the north for the first time as it targeted both Hezbollah and Hamas fighters.
Donald Trump returned on Saturday to the Pennsylvania fairgrounds where he was nearly assassinated in July, holding a sprawling rally with thousands of supporters in a critical swing state Trump hopes to return to his column in November's election.
Being an armchair detective has turned into an American obsession, fueled by an abundance of true-crime content in podcasts and television series. But some of those projects have sparked actual legal developments.
A French judge in the trial of dozens of men accused of raping an unconscious woman whose now former husband had repeatedly drugged her so that he and others could assault her decided on Friday to allow the public to see some of the video recordings of the alleged rapes.
French authorities said four migrants, including a two-year-old child, died Saturday in two separate incidents as they attempted to cross the English Channel toward Britain.
A rural Colorado county courthouse beefed up security Friday after threats were made against staff and a judge who sentenced former county clerk Tina Peters to nearly nine years behind bars for her role in a data breach scheme catalyzed by the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeatedly reiterated calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East on Saturday as he blamed Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel for a staggering number of civilian deaths.
While America's southern border remains a hot button issue on the campaign trail, the result of the U.S. election in November could also impact the northern frontier with Canada, which remains the longest undefended border in the world.
NDP House leader Peter Julian says there's more his party wants to do in Parliament before the next election, but if the current dysfunction continues it will become a factor in how they vote on a confidence measure.
Bruzzese came down with COVID-19 in February 2023, and received her injection at the end of March. 鈥淏eing able to recognize smells is something we take for granted, until you can鈥檛.鈥
New data raises questions about the drinks people consume and the potential risks associated with them, according to researchers at Galway University in Ireland, in partnership with Hamilton鈥檚 McMaster University.
Convenience store firms that operate thousands of outlets across Canada are taking the federal government to court to overturn regulations that restrict the sale of nicotine pouches to pharmacies.
Scientists announced on Thursday a milestone in neurobiological research with the mapping of the entire brain of an adult fruit fly, a feat that may provide insight into brains across the animal kingdom, including people.
For humans, flashing a smile is an easy way to avoid misunderstanding. And, according to a new study, bottlenose dolphins may use a similar tactic while playing with each other.
Alphabet's Google is testing showing check marks next to certain companies on its search results, a company spokesperson said on Friday, in a move aimed at helping users identify verified sources and steer clear of fake websites.
Hollywood star Keanu Reeves made his professional auto racing debut on Saturday in an event in which 'The Matrix' star spun out at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
You might be thinking, 'Shut up!' but it鈥檚 officially true: the 'Princess Diaries' franchise is finally growing.
Legendary singer Paul Simon has said he is 'optimistic' about being able to return to performing live after losing most of his hearing in his left ear.
Dubai's Emirates airline has banned pagers and walkie-talkies from its planes, following last month's attacks on such devices carried by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
TikToks of customers stuffing their faces with a US$20 endless shrimp. More than 100 restaurant closures and thousands of layoffs. A revolving door of CEOs. Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Brazil's Supreme Court said on Friday that lawyers representing social media platform X did not pay pending fines to the right bank, postponing its decision on whether to allow the tech firm to resume services in Brazil.
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A five-seat sushi counter located inside another restaurant is the latest Vancouver eatery to receive a Michelin star.
Toilet paper shortages in stores across America are giving folks nightmarish reminders of the pandemic era. But the lack of toilet paper isn鈥檛 a direct result of a major port strike Tuesday. It鈥檚 because of panic buying.
Vanderbilt takes down AP poll No. 1 Alabama 40-35 in historic college football victory.
Avry Wortman, 13, scored two touchdowns on Sunday during her team's win in the under 14 Greater Moncton Football Association.
Argentine star Lionel Messi was on the bench to start Inter Miami CF's game in Toronto on Saturday.
Tesla is recalling more than 27,000 Cybertrucks because the rearview camera image may not activate immediately after shifting into reverse, the fifth recall for the vehicle since it went on sale late last year.
A Pickering, Ont., student going to college to be a mechanic is shocked the engine in his two-year-old car will not be repaired under warranty after the dealership claimed he had been 'over-revving' the engine.
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.
A husband and wife have been on the road trip of a lifetime and have decided to stop in Saskatchewan for the winter.
The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north
What does New Westminster's t蓹m蓹sew虛tx史 Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.
The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.
New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.
Fire crews battled a massive blaze in downtown Langley Saturday morning.
A Vancouver teen who survived an extremely rare cancer diagnosis has left his mark on BC Children's Hospital. In fact, he's left his name there.
A driver suffered only minor injuries after going airborne in a residential neighbourhood in Maple Ridge, B.C., on Friday, the car eventually landing on its roof in someone鈥檚 backyard.
The Ontario Science Centre is set to launch two temporary satellite locations in other parts of Toronto, which could let visitors access some of its interactive exhibits while a full interim location remains at least a year away, 愛污传媒 has learned.
Leo Campana scored in stoppage time to leave Toronto FC's playoff hopes hanging by a thread after a 1-0 Inter Miami win Saturday.
A Toronto police officer has been arrested after allegedly stealing three bottles of alcohol from a store.
An investigation is underway into a Friday night collision in southeast Calgary that left one person dead.
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi laid out a path to the premier鈥檚 office at an NDP members' town hall meeting Saturday at the University of Calgary.
One person is dead following a rollover Saturday in the area of Plummers Road and Priddis Valley Road.
Demonstrators converged on downtown Ottawa Saturday afternoon as part of a global day of action to protest Israel's military actions in the Middle East.
Three people were taken to hospital after a crash between a pickup truck and a car in a rural part of Ottawa's south end on Saturday afternoon.
Environment Canada has issued a frost advisory as temperatures across Ottawa and eastern Ontario are expected to dip near the freezing mark this evening.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
Montreal police say they are increasing their presence across the city ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 start of the Israel-Hamas war.
Montreal police say a business in the city's Pointe-Saint-Charles neighbourhood was hit with Molotov cocktails two nights in a row.
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Communities outside of the perimeter aren鈥檛 immune to the housing and affordability struggles seen in Winnipeg.
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Saskatchewan's two major political parties made campaign stops in Moose Jaw Saturday with both promising to invest into the city if elected on Oct. 28.
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Regina Pats' captain Tanner Howe was hurt in just his second game back with the team after spending time at the Pittsburgh Penguins training camp this fall.
The Huron Ontario Provincial Police said they responded to a 鈥渄owned airplane鈥 just after 11 a.m. Saturday.
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The Oktoberfest Parade is fast approaching and organizers are urgently seeking volunteers to fill the role of sign carriers.
The Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation hosted a virtual election forum on education Thursday evening, giving candidates in the provincial election a chance to share their thoughts and answer questions on issues teachers find most important.
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Saskatchewan's two major political parties made campaign stops in Moose Jaw Saturday with both promising to invest into the city if elected on Oct. 28.
Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard has been found not guilty of sexually assaulting a young woman in northeastern Ontario eight years ago. The former Hedley frontman had pleaded not guilty to sexual assault.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
Fire crews in Greater Sudbury battled a large garage fire on Friday.
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Canadians who are eligible for a GST/HST tax credit can expect their final payment of the year on Friday.
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Provincial police are investigating a collision along Highway 400 in Tay Township Friday afternoon.
More than a thousand residents attended the Town of Innisfil's inaugural 'InnisFALL' festival on Saturday, which celebrated the spirit of fall with live music and entertainment at Innisfil Town Square.
The municipality issued a stern reminder for code violators, as both were fined following a warning issued by Leamington Fire Services.
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NDP Leader David Eby is promising to offer a $75-million loan forgiveness program to entice doctors, nurses and heath professionals to expand health-care services in rural British Columbia.
Ever since Taylor Swift made thousands, if not millions, of loyal fans鈥 wildest dreams come true by announcing a three-show run in Vancouver this December, scammers have attempted, and sometimes succeeded, to take advantage of the scramble for tickets.
We haven't heard the candidates talk much about education during B.C.'s 2024 election campaign, but the teachers' union is trying to put the spotlight on that issue.
Nearly two years after a man was stabbed to death in downtown Kelowna, RCMP have made an arrest in the case.
NDP Leader David Eby is promising to offer a $75-million loan forgiveness program to entice doctors, nurses and heath professionals to expand health-care services in rural British Columbia.
Three young suspects have been arrested in connection with a swarming attack on a teenager in B.C.'s Okanagan last week 鈥 and authorities have asked the public to stop circulating disturbing videos of the incident.
While the summer may be over, construction season in Lethbridge is not.
Lethbridge police executed dozens of warrants and laid numerous charges in another targeted enforcement project in the downtown area.
A person was airlifted to hospital following a serious crash in Taber, Alta., on Friday morning. Taber RCMP responded to the scene on Highway 864 around 10:30 a.m., for a crash involving an SUV and a semi-truck.
The Ontario College of Family Physicians has presented awards to 750 doctors based on comments from patients, including eight physicians who are part of the Group Health Centre in Sault Ste. Marie.
Two teens, ages 14 and 19, have been charged with arson in connection with a July 14 fire in Cat Lake First Nation that destroyed $500,000 in construction materials.
A northeastern Ontario jury has started deliberating in Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard's sexual assault trial, we can now tell you what they weren't allowed to hear.
He may not have logged the fastest time or even gone the full distance, but residents of a Newfoundland town agree the goat who unexpectedly joined the local weekend half marathon was the event's undisputed champion.
A mother in a community where the cost of living is one of the highest in the country says grocery prices are 'inhumane' and retailers are putting profits ahead of people鈥檚 basic human right to food.
A soccer game in England on Tuesday night drove a spike in online traffic across the Atlantic to a website launched by the Newfoundland and Labrador government.
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