The Bank of Canada on Wednesday announced it would once again be holding the overnight interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second time in a row.
The latest consumer price index report showed Canada's inflation rate had slowed to 5.2 per cent, the lowest it's been in over a year. Bond yields in Canada have also fallen, suggesting the market is betting on future interest rate cuts. But even as inflation continues to cool, economists are split on when we can eventually see lower interest rates.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist and director at BMO Capital Markets, says he's not expecting a rate cut until "early next year."
"If we see much more weakness in the economy -- a real recession -- yes, the Bank of Canada almost certainly would swing into action in reverse gears and cut interest rates," he told ۴ý Channel on Wednesday. "But we don't see that. We just see a very mild downturn and growth resuming by the end of this year."
Rather than a sharp recession, Guatieri says BMO is forecasting a "technical downturn in the next couple of quarters," one he expects will be "very mild, very shallow" and over by the end of this year.
"Canada has kind of mixed as to whether we will slip into recession. The general forecast calls for continued growth, very modest growth for the rest of this year, but they're not ruling out the possibility that we could see small declines for a quarter or two this year. So that could meet the technical definition of recession," he said.
Meanwhile, Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins Economics, is projecting the given how fast inflation has been slowing, and how some banks in the U.S. have run into trouble in the last month.
"Most importantly, inflation has come down faster than the Bank had previously anticipated and financial conditions have tightened on the back of banking sector turbulence outside of our borders," he wrote in a research note on Wednesday. "Together, these look to have outweighed the sustained strength in the Canadian economy and labour market."
Canada also continues to have a strong job market. In the last labour report, StatCan reported Canada gained 35,000 jobs while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 per cent, which is near record lows.
"Canadian households continue to benefit from significant government financial supports with a job market at full employment. The combination has reignited consumer spending through the first quarter of this year. With government policy at odds with the central bank, economists from TD wrote in a research note on Thursday.
The economists also said in order for rate cuts to occur, there would need to be "a convincing slackening in the job market and erosion in economic momentum."
"This places the timing close to year-end or early 2024. In other words, just as the rate hike cycle started in Canada and the U.S. in close alignment, so too will the rate cut cycle," they wrote.
When asked about whether rate cuts are on the horizon, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem told reporters on Wednesday the rate cuts the bond markets have been anticipating "don't look like the most likely scenario to us," and didn't rule out a future rate hike to get inflation down to two per cent.
Despite Macklem's attempts to quell speculation in the market that a rate cut is on it way, Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, says the
"The BoC almost always shows itself to be fully under control of inflation — even when it obviously isn’t -- by showing a return to two per cent inflation as if magically within a medium-term horizon. Maybe if you stopped showing that wishful thinking you wouldn’t have markets pricing rate cuts from restrictive levels above neutral," Holt wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
U.S. forecasters are warning of destructive waves, devastating winds and flash floods through the week as Hurricane Milton makes its way from the Yucatan Peninsula toward Florida.
Kamala Harris called Donald Trump 'incredibly irresponsible' for spreading falsehoods about the federal response to Hurricane Helene's destruction, offering especially sharp words as a new storm bears down on Florida with just weeks until Election Day.
A British-Canadian researcher has won the Nobel Prize in physics for work developing the foundations of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The University of Toronto's Geoffrey Hinton was awarded the prize Tuesday morning, along with Princeton University researcher John Hopfield.
When it comes to raising a child, the majority of fathers say they share tasks equally, but fewer mothers tend to say the same thing, according to a Statistics Canada survey.
As online shoppers hunt for bargains offered by Amazon during its annual fall sale this week, cybersecurity researchers are warning Canadians to beware of an influx of scammers posing as the tech giant.
A Toronto senior says she can’t believe that two roofers took advantage of her, despite knowing she was recently widowed and suffering from a painful disability.
Despite Hurricane Milton evolving into a Category 5 storm, Walt Disney World Resort remains open to the public and will operate as normal. However, the park announced Monday a few closures in an abundance of caution.
For years, Kathy Bates has believed she missed thanking someone pivotal during her acceptance speech after she won the Oscar for best actress in 1991 for her performance in 'Misery.'
Florida's Gulf Coast braced Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton's winds and expected massive storm surge, which could bring destruction to areas already reeling from Helene's devastation 12 days ago and still recovering from Ian's wrath two years ago.
Videos of a meteor streaking across the skies of southern Ontario have surfaced and small bits of the outer space rock may have made it to land, one astronomy professor says.
The day after a minivan was set ablaze outside Vancouver City Hall, a 78-year-old man has been criminally charged.
Lawyers representing the Ontario man accused of selling hundreds of suicide kits with deadly effect around the globe have filed to intervene in a case in Canada’s highest court, arguing there is no way he can be charged with murder under Canadian law.
A disgraced Winnipeg high school football coach convicted of sexual assault and luring will spend 20 years behind bars.
Toronto Coun. Michael Thompson 'forced himself on' a woman who awoke to find him standing over her after she fell asleep drunk, the Crown alleged Monday, as the five-day sexual assault trial of the six-term politician began in Bracebridge, Ont.
Days after a political sign was erected outside Lululemon founder Chip Wilson's Vancouver mansion, the waterfront property has been vandalized with graffiti.
Kamala Harris called Donald Trump 'incredibly irresponsible' for spreading falsehoods about the federal response to Hurricane Helene's destruction, offering especially sharp words as a new storm bears down on Florida with just weeks until Election Day.
A canyoneer died in Zion National Park after falling between 150 and 200 feet near the the Upper Emerald Pool in southwest Utah, according to the National Park Service.
The mayor of a state capital in southern Mexico has been killed just one week after he took office, officials said Sunday.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Monday there are 'a lot of bad genes' in the United States, while discussing murders allegedly committed by immigrants living illegally in the United States.
Hezbollah's acting leader said Tuesday that even more Israelis will be displaced as the militant group extends its rocket fire deeper into Israel, in a defiant televised statement marking the anniversary of fighting that escalated into war last month.
Florida's Gulf Coast braced Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton's winds and expected massive storm surge, which could bring destruction to areas already reeling from Helene's devastation 12 days ago and still recovering from Ian's wrath two years ago.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is supporting Israel's right to defend itself against Iran following last week's ballistic missile attack, saying that right includes 'proactively striking Iranian nuclear sites and oil installations to defund the terrorist regime.'
A newly released document shows federal cabinet ministers were warned in May 2022 that hostile states were targeting Canada's strategic interests, the integrity of Canadian institutions and democratic processes, and the ability of the public to exercise Charter-protected rights and freedoms.
Global Affairs Canada says it's chartering more flights from Lebanon this week to help Canadians leave the country as conflict escalates between Israel and Hezbollah.
AI scribe technology holds the promise of removing some of that burden. However, uptake in Canada has been low due to privacy and cost concerns.
Georgia's highest court reinstated a ban on nearly all abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy on Monday while it considers the U.S. state's appeal of last week's ruling by a lower court judge blocking the law.
Sammy Basso, who was the longest living survivor of the rare genetic disease progeria, has died at the age of 28, the Italian Progeria Association said on Sunday.
A British-Canadian researcher has won the Nobel Prize in physics for work developing the foundations of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The University of Toronto's Geoffrey Hinton was awarded the prize Tuesday morning, along with Princeton University researcher John Hopfield.
The best minds in science will be thrust from academic obscurity into the spotlight this week when the Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, and physiology or medicine are announced. However, there is no shortage of Nobel-worthy discoveries: Here are five breakthroughs that haven't resulted in a life-changing call from Stockholm — at least not yet.
A spacecraft blasted off Monday to investigate the scene of a cosmic crash.
Cissy Houston, the mother of the late Whitney Houston and a two-time Grammy winner who performed alongside superstar musicians like Elvis Presley, and Aretha Franklin, has died. She was 91.
For years, Kathy Bates has believed she missed thanking someone pivotal during her acceptance speech after she won the Oscar for best actress in 1991 for her performance in 'Misery.'
The weapons supervisor in the fatal shooting of a cinematographer by Alec Baldwin on the set of the Western film 'Rust' pleaded guilty Monday to a separate criminal charge of carrying a gun into a licensed liquor establishment.
A Toronto senior says she can’t believe that two roofers took advantage of her, despite knowing she was recently widowed and suffering from a painful disability.
As U.S. regulators push for an investigation into what they call 'deadly baby and toddler products' from foreign e-commerce sites, health officials in Canada say they haven't determined whether any laws or regulations have been broken.
The Federal Court of Appeal has dismissed a challenge to the construction of a massive rail-and-truck hub in the Greater Toronto Area, allowing the project to proceed.
When it comes to raising a child, the majority of fathers say they share tasks equally, but fewer mothers tend to say the same thing, according to a Statistics Canada survey.
Gerontologist Jay Olshansky is used to backlash about his views on human longevity. Decades ago he and his coauthors predicted children, on average, would live to only age 85 — only 1 per cent to 5 per cent might survive until their 100th birthday.
'Eat more vegetables,' doctors and dietitians say over and over. But for many people, it’s hard to do, because they aren’t excited about veggies or just don’t like them.
A former WWE employee who filed a lawsuit against the company and ex-leader Vince McMahon, accusing him of sexual battery and trafficking, is asking them to not enforce nondisclosure agreements with other former and current employees and contractors so they can potentially come forward with similar accusations.
Apparently not satisfied with becoming one of the dominant forces in the WNBA, 2024 Rookie of the Year Caitlin Clark is set to compete in a Pro-Am golf event in November.
The Florida Panthers handed out dozens of rings at a private ceremony commemorating last season's Stanley Cup title to players, coaches, team executives, members of the athletic training and medical staff and more.
New data from the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) shows that even though claims for auto theft dropped in the first half of 2024 compared to their 2023 peak, the rates of reported theft remain well above those of years prior.
Tesla is recalling more than 27,000 Cybertrucks because the rearview camera image may not activate immediately after shifting into reverse, the fifth recall for the vehicle since it went on sale late last year.
A Pickering, Ont., student going to college to be a mechanic is shocked the engine in his two-year-old car will not be repaired under warranty after the dealership claimed he had been 'over-revving' the engine.
Videos of a meteor streaking across the skies of southern Ontario have surfaced and small bits of the outer space rock may have made it to land, one astronomy professor says.
A unique form of clouds made an appearance over the skies of Ottawa on Sunday evening.
Bernie Hicks, known as the ‘Batman of Amherst,’ always wanted to sit in a Batmobile until a kind stranger made it happen.
Bubi’s Awesome Eats, located on University Ave West took to social media to announce the closure on Friday.
Weeneebayko Area Health Authority and the Government of Ontario have awarded a $1.8 billion fixed-price contract to design, build and finance a new Far North hospital.
Manitobans are in cleanup mode after intense winds barreled through southern parts of the province this weekend.
Avry Wortman, 13, scored two touchdowns on Sunday during her team's win in the under 14 Greater Moncton Football Association.
A gargantuan gourd – affectionately named ‘Orangina’ by the urban gardeners who grew it in the front yard of their Vancouver home – earned the massive honour of being named B.C.’s heaviest giant pumpkin Saturday.
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
Monday was a solemn and emotional day for Israelis and Palestinians. The Oct. 7, 2023, attack saw more than 1,200 Israelis killed and has since left more than 41,000 dead in Gaza.
A B.C. couple is getting desperate – and creative – in their search for their missing dog.
Child care was front and centre Monday for the BC NDP, its leader David Eby promoting the party's campaign promises.
A British-Canadian researcher has won the Nobel Prize in physics for work developing the foundations of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The University of Toronto's Geoffrey Hinton was awarded the prize Tuesday morning, along with Princeton University researcher John Hopfield.
A Toronto senior says she can’t believe that two roofers took advantage of her, despite knowing she was recently widowed and suffering from a painful disability.
A man has died after being shot on Monday night in North York, say police.
Less than 48 hours after his Monterey Park townhome was gutted by a fiery explosion, Calgarian Owen DeFoe returned on Monday to see what was left.
Two meat stores and one restaurant have reopened after being closed by AHS. The stores were accused of selling uninspected meat -- a claim the owners denied, saying they produced all the paperwork required to prove their case.
A 17-year-old boy was killed in a motorcycle crash in southeast Calgary over the weekend.
Tuesday is Alex Munter’s last day as the head of eastern Ontario’s children’s hospital after more than a decade on the job.
Ontario Provincial Police say the westbound lanes of Hwy. 417 are closed between Innes Road and Highway 174 following an overnight collision.
You may want to find your toque and gloves this morning, as temperatures drop to the coldest level in Ottawa since late April.
Heavier pressure tactics could soon begin in family daycare, as 9,000 workers have just voted in favour of a pressure tactics mandate that calls for services to open later and later, up to and including a strike day.
The Montreal police (SPVM) arson squad is investigating after a vehicle was torched in the Saint-Leonard borough.
Montreal students and supporters showed their grief and anger at protests and vigils as they marked the anniversary of the current war between Israel and Gaza.
Provincial ministers testified before the House of Commons on Monday, asking the federal government to pay for the cost of the Jasper wildfire.
A Grande Prairie man has been charged with kidnapping after an assault on Sunday.
After four years of criticism, the Alberta government is considering changing how schools are funded
Hundreds of people gathered at two separate vigils in Halifax Monday night to remember the lives lost since the Hamas-Israel war began one year ago.
The price of diesel jumped nine cents overnight in Nova Scotia after the province’s Utility and Review Board (UARB) invoked its interrupter clause.
For the first time in years, a direct flight from Halifax touched down at the JD McCurdy Sydney Airport on Monday.
A disgraced Winnipeg high school football coach convicted of sexual assault and luring will spend 20 years behind bars.
After concerns were raised in the summer, it appears some 7-Eleven stores in Winnipeg may be shutting down because of crime.
One year has passed since Hamas militants murdered 1,200 Israelis and took more than 200 people hostage. Since the horrific attack, nearly 42,000 people have been killed in Gaza, as the war between Israel and Hamas rages on.
Regina resident Murray Yagelniski says a city-owned tree on his property is the root of the issue behind his basement flooding.
The Saskatchewan NDP says the province's troubled payment and scheduling system for healthcare is only half implemented and has costed taxpayers nearly triple its original price tag so far.
The John Howard Society of Saskatchewan will appear in front of the Supreme Court of Canada on Tuesday challenging a regulation that it says lets correctional workers discipline inmates without sufficient proof.
Communities across Canada, including in Waterloo Region, are marking one year since the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the Israel-Hamas war.
In September, ۴ý Kitchener reported on Sandvine's deals with autocratic governments, including Egypt, where its tech reportedly helped inject spyware into the devices of government critics.
The penalty hearing for Guelph Police constable Corey McArthur has heard from two character witnesses, both supporting an eventual return to policing for the officer who has admitted to assaulting a teen who was handcuffed to a hospital bed.
Saskatoon’s Prairie Harm Reduction (PHR) says a staff member arrived to work on Thursday morning to find someone at its doorstep, unresponsive from a suspected drug overdose.
A 36-year-old woman accused of sexually assaulting, physically assaulting and threatening residents at a Saskatchewan care home, was not in court when her matters were spoken to Monday afternoon.
Saskatoon mayoral candidate Cynthia Block says the city needs a new deal with Ottawa to keep life affordable.
Ontario Provincial Police are investigating a fatal crash of a side-by-side off-road vehicle east of Parry Sound that killed one and injured another Friday.
A teacher working on a First Nation in northwestern Ontario has been charged with sexually assaulting a minor.
The North Bay Battalion hockey team is mourning the loss of a former player who died at 23 after a battle with cancer.
U.S. forecasters are warning of destructive waves, devastating winds and flash floods through the week as Hurricane Milton makes its way from the Yucatan Peninsula toward Florida.
City hall is on track to deliver a massive budget surplus this year, but the windfall is already being earmarked to fill a new financial shortfall.
Saying “yes” to ENCORE paid off for Emily Lamont, Carrie Newton, and Rosanne (Rose) Breig of Mildmay.
Five vehicles collided in Orillia Monday night during rush hour.
The cause of a fire that caused significant damage to a home in Oro-Medonte over the weekend is under investigation.
More than a hundred members of the Jewish community gathered at Barrie City Hall to commemorate the events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas abducted more than 200 Israeli civilians and today's ongoing war in the Middle East commenced.
Delays are to be expected Tuesday morning after a crash in Essex County. According to OPP, the crash happened at Walker Road and Highway 3 in Tecumseh.
The Ambassador Bridge border crossing was 'temporarily closed' for a period of time, according to the Canada Border Services Agency website.
U.S. forecasters are warning of destructive waves, devastating winds and flash floods through the week as Hurricane Milton makes its way from the Yucatan Peninsula toward Florida.
Major crime investigators have been called to the scene of a suspected homicide in the northern Vancouver Island community of Port Hardy.
The day after a minivan was set ablaze outside Vancouver City Hall, a 78-year-old man has been criminally charged.
A Canadian soldier who was exposed to toxic chemicals from burn pits while serving in Afghanistan has been awarded full medical compensation for testicular cancer after Veterans Affairs initially denied his claim.
Nearly two years after a man was stabbed to death in downtown Kelowna, RCMP have made an arrest in the case.
NDP Leader David Eby is promising to offer a $75-million loan forgiveness program to entice doctors, nurses and heath professionals to expand health-care services in rural British Columbia.
Three young suspects have been arrested in connection with a swarming attack on a teenager in B.C.'s Okanagan last week – and authorities have asked the public to stop circulating disturbing videos of the incident.
A Lethbridge police officer involved in a scandal involving former Lethbridge New Democrat MLA Shannon Phillips has been reprimanded.
Lethbridge police say a man who escaped from a psychiatric ward at the Chinook Regional Hospital has been found.
While the summer may be over, construction season in Lethbridge is not.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities (FONOM) is the latest organization to call on the Doug Ford government to re-open dialogue with an airline service that transports lower-income Canadians to crucial medical care far from home.
For decades, Mississauga First Nation has known that human remains from their land were at the Canadian Museum of History.
Greater Sudbury in partnership with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, is hosting the organization's annual mining conference.
As millions in federal funding flow into a Labrador group whose claims of Inuit identity have been rejected by Indigenous organizations across Canada, a national Inuit leader worries the Liberal government is putting the rights of Indigenous Peoples at risk.
He may not have logged the fastest time or even gone the full distance, but residents of a Newfoundland town agree the goat who unexpectedly joined the local weekend half marathon was the event's undisputed champion.
A mother in a community where the cost of living is one of the highest in the country says grocery prices are 'inhumane' and retailers are putting profits ahead of people’s basic human right to food.
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