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    • 82 per cent of Canadians believe the country is in a recession: survey

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    A new survey suggests that most Canadians are pessimistic about the outlook of the economy in 2024, as well as their own finances.

    The online survey, conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights, found that 52 per cent of respondents believe the Canadian economy will worsen this year, while 24 per cent said they expect the economy to not change and 15 per cent believe it will improve. Pessimism about the state of the Canadian economy was highest in Quebec and lowest in Ontario.

    In addition, 82 per cent of respondents nationwide said they believe Canada is in a recession. Pollara says this is the third-highest total since polling on this question began in 2001.

    While Canada has not yet seen two negative quarters of GDP growth, which has been a working definition for a technical recession often used in the media, Canada is already in a recession on a per capita basis, given that immigration has driven much of Canada's positive economic growth.

    Nearly half (46 per cent) also said they expect to fall behind financially in 2024, while 38 per cent expect to keep pace and eight per cent believe they will more than keep pace.

    Grocery prices also remain the top financial concern for Canadians, with 44 per cent identifying food costs as a major source of stress, followed by housing expenses, gas prices and heating bills. Stress about the cost of gas has gone down since last year, as gas prices have dropped considerably since they peaked in June 2022, exceeding $2 per litre in most cities.

    The cost of food at grocery stores is a top concern across all regions and age groups. However, people in Atlantic Canada were more likely than other regions to be concerned about home heating bills, with 37 per cent of Atlantic residents saying this is a major source of stress. In Atlantic Canada, nearly a third of households rely on home heating oil, which is uncommon in other parts of Canada and is than other types of home heating systems.

    Younger Canadians were also more likely to identify housing expenses as a major stressor. Of the respondents aged 18 to 34, 45 per cent said this was a major source of stress, while just 19 per cent of those 65 and over said the same thing.

    When asked about what words describe their feelings about their personal financial situation, "confident" and "calm" were the two most common words among homeowners with mortgages paid off. Meanwhile, renters and homeowners paying mortgages said they felt "worried" and "upset."

    Nineteen per cent of respondents said they think they or a family member may lose their jobs in the next 12 months, reflecting a downward trend from 2021 when 35 per cent reported worrying about potential job loss. Fear of job loss was most common among those who work blue-collar jobs, as 34 per cent answered "yes" to this question.

    METHODOLOGY

    Pollara conducted an online survey of a randomly selected sample of 1,503 adult Canadians from Dec. 6 to 11, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20, and the data has been weighted using gender, age and region population data from the latest Canadian census.

    With files from BNNBloomberg.ca

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